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Free AccessModest Richening In Asia
U.S. Tsys have experienced some marginal richening in Asia dealing, with regional participants willing to buy Tuesday’s dip. Outright yield levels, questions re: the potential for further short-term hawkish Fed re-pricing, downside misses in the latest round of Chinese inflation data and questions in the West re: the apparent de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine standoff (punctuated by U.S. President Biden’s continued alert re: the potential for a Russian invasion of Ukraine) are likely fostering the bid. Cash Tsys run 0.5-2.0bp richer across the curve, back from best levels, with the front end leading, facilitating some bull steepening. TYH2 prints +0-02 at 125-25+, 0-04+ back from the peak of a 0-07+ range. TY block buys (+3,431/-3,431) and a block seller of the TYJ2 126.00/125.50 put spread (-20K), which looked like a rolldown of strikes, headlined on the flow side overnight.
- To recap, apparent de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine standoff, as reports and Russian commentary indicated that Russian troops have started to return to their barracks (some Western communique re: the matter was a little more sceptical) applied pressure to broader core fixed income markets ahead of NY trade on Tuesday. Firmer than expected PPI data added further (modest) pressure in early NY dealing, with rate locking activity surrounding longer dated corporate issuance, setup ahead of Wednesday’s 20-Year auction and real money steepener-like flow (although desks noted separate long end selling/short end buying interest) seemingly promoting bear steepening through the day. 30-Year yields tagged the highest level observed since May in the process, while 10s closed above 2.00% in yield terms, although failed to break above their recent peak. As a result, cash Tsys finished 0.5 to 7.5bp cheaper on the day, with bear steepening in play.
- Looking ahead, NY hours will see the release of U.S. retail sales & industrial production data, as well as the aforementioned 20-Year Tsy supply. We will also get the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting, in addition to Fedspeak from Kashkari (’23 voter, dove).
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.