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Modestly Richer On Elevated Volumes, Fedspeak and 3Y Supply Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Treasuries have pulled back off earlier highs heading into the NY crossover but still sit 2.5-3.5bps richer on the day, led by 7s. The RBA’s dovish 25bp rate hike triggered a rally in Aussie bonds but there was only very limited spill over for Tsys at the time.
  • It’s a move that sees the front end reverse the additional sell-off seen after the Fed’s SLOOS yesterday, whilst the longer end reverses the day's sell-off that built through the session before relatively little impact from SLOOS. Accordingly, 2s10s sits 1bp lower at -30bps off yesterday's most recent high of -25bps.
  • TYZ3 at 107-30 trades close to an earlier high of 108-03+ but is within yesterday’s range, amidst elevated volumes of almost 450k. A bull cycle is still in play, with resistance at 108-25+ (Sep 25 high).
  • Fedspeak: Today’s focus is on 7 different FOMC participants speaking -- see the separate STIR bullet for who to watch out for.
  • Data takes a backseat, with the Trade Balance for Sep (0830ET) and Consumer Credit for Sep (1500ET).
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $48B 3Y note auction (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $75B 42-day CMB bill auction (1130ET)
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