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Modestly Richer With Session Focus On Fed Comms & 5Y Supply

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a mixed overnight session but ultimately sit 1-2.5bp richer across the curve, most recently rallying in a continuation of move firmer after ECB’s Villeroy talked down the terminal rate.
  • Front end yields sit in the middle of yesterday’s ranges but still towards the high end for the belly and beyond after yesterday’s stronger than expected PMIs. Upcoming Fed commentary headlines a light docket although 5Y supply is also in focus prior to the FOMC Minutes.
  • 2YY -1.7bp at 4.679%, 5YY -2.5bp at 4.150%, 10YY -1.6bp at 3.937%, 30YY -1.4bp at 3.958%.
  • TYH3 trades 3 ticks higher at 111-05 on above average volumes. Support is seen at the earlier low of 110-30+ after which sits 110-07 (2.0% 10-dma envelope), whilst to the upside sits resistance at 113-05 (20-day EMA).
  • Fed: Bullard (non-voter) speaks to CNBC (0700ET), FOMC Minutes (1400ET) and then late on NY Fed Williams (1730ET).
  • Data: Weekly MBA mortgage data (0700ET)
  • Note/Bond issuance: US Tsy $22B 2Y FRN reopen (1130ET), US Tsy $43B 5Y Note auction (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: $36B 17W bills (1130ET)
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