Monday’s Late Pop Higher Unwound

Modest cheapening in the U.S. Tsy space allowed Aussie bond futures to tick lower overnight, with the major contracts unwinding the pre-RBA short covering shunt higher that was observed just ahead of Monday’s Sydney close. That leaves YM -5.0 and XM -2.0 as of typing, a little above their respective overnight troughs.

• A quick reminder that the first RBA decision of 2022 headlines the domestic docket today. The Bank is expected to leave its cash rate target unchanged, declare the end of its QE scheme and adapt its forward guidance on interest rates on the back of a tighter than expected labour market and firmer than expected inflationary pressures. We believe the RBA will remain non-committal when it comes to the timing of future rate hikes (see more in our full preview).
• Elsewhere, monthly retail sales & Q4 retail sales volumes will be eyed, as will housing finance data.