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Monthly GDP – 0830ET

CANADA
  • April GDP is seen increasing 0.2% M/M, in line with its advance estimate, for an acceleration from 0.0% M/M. If accurate, the economy will have fared well during the PSAC strikes.
  • Analyst expectations of the May advance suggest 0.1% or above would be a positive surprise, after a sizeable drag from hours worked falling -0.4% M/M.
  • Assuming a flat May and no surprises for April, the 3m/3m rate would be 1.6% annualized. That compares with 2.8% annualized from Q1 (or 3.1% for the quarterly expenditure series the BoC forecasts) but is stronger than the BoC’s forecast of 1% for Q2 from its April MPR.
  • The release is part one of important releases today, followed by the BoC's BOS and CSCE at 1030ET.
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