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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA DATA
- GDP increased 0.2% M/M (cons 0.1) in Nov and more notably indicated a stronger than expected 0.3% increase in Dec.
- If accurate it would see GDP growth on an industry basis rise 1.2% annualized in Q4, coming shortly after the BoC last week revised down its Q4 GDP forecast from 0.8% to 0.0% (based on the different expenditure approach). The BoC then pencilled in 0.5% growth for Q1.
- The two measures can have large differences in the near-term even if they tend to get revised away with enough time. The monthly industry data indicated -0.2% annualized for Q3 vs the quarterly expenditure’s -1.1%, with another reasonable difference back in 4Q22 with the monthly again not as weak with -0.2 vs -0.9%.
- These differences can still throw up surprises when it comes to the Q4 release on Feb 29 (ahead of the BoC decision on Mar 06), but for now it helps offer at least some pushback on near-term rate cut expectations even if it’s unlikely to force any analyst view change ahead of today's FOMC decision and CAD jobs on Friday.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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