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Morgan Stanley, Former NBH Governor Expect NBH to Moderate Size of Rate Cuts

HUNGARY
  • The NBH are likely to display attentiveness to adverse HUF conditions when they meet next week, given EURHUF is operating relatively close to cycle highs with technical conditions still strongly bullish. Morgan Stanley noted yesterday that Hungary will most likely lower its base rate by 75bps in March (with a 20% probability assigned to each of a 50bp or 100bp cut in March) and by 50bps in April.
  • Speaking in an interview to MNI, former NBH governor Andras Simor said the central bank will slow the pace of rate cuts from 100bps to 75bp or even 50bp when it meets next week, seeing a 50-50 chance of either a 50bp or 75bp move the following month. See the full interview here.
  • Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban leads a weekly cabinet meeting. Cabinet Minister Gergely Gulyás usually briefs reporters on the meeting Friday mornings. There are no economic releases on the local slate this week, with focus today on the Fed as the major global risk event.

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