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Morgan Stanley Preview: No Action Needed

FED

Though they do not see a WAM increase at the December FOMC, Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to provide qualitative forward guidance on asset purchases.

  • The November minutes noted that participants broadly agreed that policy was already providing "substantial accommodation", and MS estimates market expectation of a WAM increase at just 10-15%.
  • The only thing lacking about asset purchases – per the FOMC – is the guidance around those purchases, which will change at this meeting, for example indicating "that its asset purchases would likely continue at least until there was substantial progress toward the maximum employment and inflation goals laid out in the rate forward guidance, and that the Fed was confident that progress would be sustained."
  • MS has first hike pencilled in for Q3 2023.
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