Free Trial

Morgan Stanley Trims Brent Outlooks on More Bearish Factors

OIL

Global crude inventories are higher than expected and current supply/demand balances will likely weaken after Q3 based on current trends according to a Morgan Stanley research note this week.

  • The bank trimmed its Q3 2024 Brent forecast to $86/bbl from $90/bbl and Q4 to $85 from $87.50.
  • The window for summer demand to drive tightness was shrinking it said.
  • It added that a Brent return to $90/bbl was “ambitious.”
  • Morgan Stanley cut its 2025 quarterly Brent forecasts too: Q1 trimmed to $81/bbl from $82.50/bbl, Q2 to $79 from $82.50, Q3 to $77 from $80 and Q4 to $76 from $80.
  • The bank’s 2025 total oil liquids balances shows a persistent surplus of ~1m b/d.
114 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Global crude inventories are higher than expected and current supply/demand balances will likely weaken after Q3 based on current trends according to a Morgan Stanley research note this week.

  • The bank trimmed its Q3 2024 Brent forecast to $86/bbl from $90/bbl and Q4 to $85 from $87.50.
  • The window for summer demand to drive tightness was shrinking it said.
  • It added that a Brent return to $90/bbl was “ambitious.”
  • Morgan Stanley cut its 2025 quarterly Brent forecasts too: Q1 trimmed to $81/bbl from $82.50/bbl, Q2 to $79 from $82.50, Q3 to $77 from $80 and Q4 to $76 from $80.
  • The bank’s 2025 total oil liquids balances shows a persistent surplus of ~1m b/d.