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Morgan Stanley Trims Brent Outlooks on More Bearish Factors

OIL

Global crude inventories are higher than expected and current supply/demand balances will likely weaken after Q3 based on current trends according to a Morgan Stanley research note this week.

  • The bank trimmed its Q3 2024 Brent forecast to $86/bbl from $90/bbl and Q4 to $85 from $87.50.
  • The window for summer demand to drive tightness was shrinking it said.
  • It added that a Brent return to $90/bbl was “ambitious.”
  • Morgan Stanley cut its 2025 quarterly Brent forecasts too: Q1 trimmed to $81/bbl from $82.50/bbl, Q2 to $79 from $82.50, Q3 to $77 from $80 and Q4 to $76 from $80.
  • The bank’s 2025 total oil liquids balances shows a persistent surplus of ~1m b/d.
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