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Morgan Stanley: Unemp Rate To Fall To 4.6% In Oct

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Morgan Stanley forecasts +460k gains in October payrolls, basically in line with consensus. This includes a +365k private payrolls rise.

  • "The main drivers of our forecast are a larger than usual non-seasonally adjusted rise in Education, ongoing strength in Business and Professional Services, and a smaller than usual NSA decline in Leisure and Hospitality."
  • Morgan Stanley also highlights a strong ADP employment print, and improvement in unemployment insurance claims data since September.
  • They also see the unemployment rate falling to 4.6% (0.1pp below consensus), with average hourly earnings +0.4% M/M (in line), and expect the participation rate to rise by 0.1pp to 61.7%.
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