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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
Data released Wednesday showed MBA composite mortgage applications increased 0.5% in the week to Jun 16 (refis -2.1% after +6% the week prior, purchases +1.5% after +8%), the second increase in a row after four weekly declines, but a sharp slowdown from the 14-week high 7.2% prior.
- In terms of rates, we saw a third consecutive dip in the 30y conforming mortgage rate, to 6.73%, from 6.77% prior. But in contrast, the rate for jumbo loans increased 1bps to 6.80%, another fresh cycle high cycle.
- The regular-jumbo spread widened to 7bp from 2bp prior (the latter marked the first premium for Jumbo over regular for the first time since Dec'21). As the MBA report notes, this is potentially a sign of tighter conditions since March's banking turmoil, as jumbo lenders pull back.
- The broader picture is that overall mortgage activity has steadied out at very weak levels, after plummeting in early 2022 as mortgage rates increased from levels below 3.5% - discouraging refinancing in particular.
- While mortgage rates have dipped from highs above 7%, they remain elevated provide little reason to think there will be a significant pickup in mortgage apps in the near future.
30Y conforming rate (white), jumbo loan rate (blue) and spread (green)Source: MBA, Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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