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Mortgage Green Shoots Took A Pause Last Week

US DATA
  • After offering signs of green shoots in housing market activity, weekly MBA mortgage applications fell 9% last week (refis -7%, purchases -10%).
  • Focusing on purchases, the eye-catching 29% surge in the prior two weeks means that applications are still 15% higher above lows from the first week of the year, yet remain historically depressed [green line].
  • Little change on the 30Y mortgage rate on the week, down just 1bp to 6.19% but holding that ~100bp decline from the peak of late Oct/early Nov and 40bps lower over the month as the spread to Treasury yields narrows [red line].
  • MBA Deputy Chief Econ: “The spread between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury has been abnormally wide since early 2022. Further narrowing of that spread is expected to put downward pressure on mortgage rates in the coming months."


Source: Bloomberg

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