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Most of the early action is in the Pound

FOREX
  • Most of the early action has been in the Pound in G10, during the early trading European session.
  • The UK CPI beat provided some buying interest in the currency, which is up versus all G10, besides the AUD.
  • The Pound has nonetheless faded from its best levels, with the attention from most market participants turning to the FOMC later today.
  • Turnovers and volumes have been on the very low side, ahead of the Central Bank meeting, today and tomorrow.
  • There's some focus this week on Option expiry, with USDJPY 1.46bn at 113.75 for today.
  • Looking at Friday, and these may act as a magnet, although direction will be led by the CB's outcome before that day.
  • EURUSD has 2.38bn at 1.1300 for Friday's expiry, GBPUSD 1.43bn at 1.3250, and USDJPY 1.61bn at 113.75.
  • Focus on the data front front this afternoon will be on the US retail sales.
  • But all attention is on the Fed, and as mentioned in our MNI preview,:
  • The FOMC is expected to shift in a hawkish direction as it weighs rising inflation risks.
  • This shift will include a doubling of the pace of the asset purchase taper, a more aggressive rate “dot plot”, and an adjustment in the Statement language (including eliminating the word “transitory” to describe inflation).
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