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Most USD/Asia Pairs Lower, Although CNH & IDR Have Lagged

ASIA FX
Asia FX pairs are mostly lower, in line with a risk on tone from equities, and weaker USD against the majors. USD/CNH hasn't seen much downside though, despite a firmer local equity market backdrop. Still to come is Taiwan Apr trade figures. Tomorrow delivers China Apr trade figures, with export growth expected to moderate from the Mar bounce.
  • USD/CNH has been largely range bound stuck close to 6.9200 for most of the session. Higher equities haven't aided sentiment, which largely owes to better bank stock trends post deposit cuts. This may have taken the shine off CNH at the margins.
  • 1 month USD/KRW is above NY closing levels from Friday, last around 1317.50, but we did see selling interest above 1320 in earlier trade. Onshore equities are firmer, albeit away from best levels, last +0.55%.
  • The rupee has firmed in early dealing, USD/INR sits at 81.70/73 ~0.1% lower than Thursday closing levels as on shore markets reopen after the observance of a national holiday on Friday. The pair continues to consolidate below the 20-Day EMA, bears look to target 200-Day EMA (81.28). Bulls first look to break the 20-Day EMA at 81.96. The data calendar is headlined this week by Industrial Production for March and April's CPI. Both cross on Friday evening, the market looks for CPI to tick lower to 4.80% from 5.66%. Finance Minister Sitharaman noted at the weekend that inflation is slightly above the tolerance limit and authorities are taking steps to rein it in.
  • The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) firmed and now sits a touch above its pre MAS levels from mid April. We now sit ~0.7% below the top of the band. Broader USD trends dominated USD/SGD on Friday, the pair firmed in the aftermath of the NFP print in the US before the SGD firmed into the close as risk appetite improved. We now sit at $1.3245/55, ~0.1% softer on Monday.
  • USD/IDR spiked higher at the open, getting close to 14720. We are now back closer to 14700, still 0.20% weaker in IDR terms versus last Friday's close. There appears to be some resistance around the 14720 region and just above this level. The rupiah has underperformed other parts of the Asian FX complex, and also versus the G10 high beta space (AUD and NZD etc). Local equities are still lagging, not enjoying the broader positive trend, which is likely hurting sentiment at the margins.
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