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MPC members due to testify in 10 mins

GILTS
  • After a solid start to the day for 10-year gilts, opening above the highs seen on Thursday and Friday last week, we have retraced all of those gains with yields onw higher on the day. 2-year yields, meanwhile remain a little lower on the day despite also having headed higher from the open.
  • The main event for the day is due up at 14:30GMT, however, as four MPC members testify before the Treasury Select Committee. We discussed the importance of this event earlier but wanted to draw attention to a few more points.
  • Bailey: He's likely to be pushed on whether he misled markets - probably harder pushback than he received via the MPR press conference. He's also likely to be asked questions such as will December be in play. We think market participants will take his comments with a pinch of salt with many traders feeling a bit burnt after feeling like they followed his market cues through much of October.
  • Pill: Had previously described the market as over excited but said November was in play. Will probably be pushed on whether there will be enough data for him to change his mind and vote for a hike in December.
  • Mann: Had seemingly ruled out voting for a hike in November but unexpectedly voted to end QE early in November. Will be looking for more clarity on her arguments today.
  • Saunders: Expect him to remain hawkish after voting for a hike.
  • Market reaction: Could go either way today depending on the comments, but market may try not to price in too much ahead of tomorrow's crucial labour market print even if comments are hawkish. A December hike is still largely priced by markets with a hike by February fully priced and Bank Rate at 1.25% by the end of next year.
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