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MUFG Securities Americas rates......>

US DATA PREVIEW
US DATA PREVIEW: MUFG Securities Americas rates strategist John Herrmann said on
Friday US July CPI, "our models forecast a LOWER gain in the total CPI Index of
+0.1116% mom (rounded to +0.10% mom) versus consensus estimate +0.20% mom. On a
year-over-year basis, our models forecast a +1.723% outcome (rounded to +1.70%)
LOWER than the consensus estimate +1.80% yoy."
- He adds that "for the core CPI Index, our models forecast a +0.1554% mom
outcome LOWER than the consensus estimate +0.20% mom. On a year-over-year basis,
our models forecast a +1.7336% outcome (rounded to +1.70%) versus consensus
estimate +1.70% yoy. Since our forecast for the core CPI index is so close to
where it may either round UP or DOWN - it is difficult to say what will be the
outcome tomorrow morning."
- Meanwhile JPM economists forecast US headline July CPI would fall 0.04%.

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