Free Trial

MUFG'S John Herrmann said that......>

US DATA PREVIEW
US DATA PREVIEW: MUFG'S John Herrmann said that models for the Dec jobs report
"glean that the underlying pace of nonfarm payroll growth over the year 2017 was
very close to +184.5K per month" or a "really good pace."
- "That said, we worry over two statistical survey features that may restrain
the gain in December's nonfarm payrolls," he said:
- "1. The seasonal adjustment factor may "GAP HIGHER" for the current month of
December - see Chart, and"
- "2. The "late Reference Saturday" may yield a very "low collection-response
rate" by establishments that, ceteris paribus, tends to bias lower the payroll
gain in its initial estimate by the BLS (only to be subsequently revised)."
- "Because of these two potentially formidable statistical headwinds, our
nonfarm payroll estimates are: +191.3K mom for total nonfarm payrolls vs
consensus +190K mom and  +185.3K mom for private payrolls - versus consensus
estimate +193K (previously +180K mom)," Herrmann said.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
}); window.REBELMOUSE_ACTIVE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ window.dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'logedout', 'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut' }); });