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MUFG'S John Herrmann said that......>

US DATA PREVIEW
US DATA PREVIEW: MUFG'S John Herrmann said that models for the Dec jobs report
"glean that the underlying pace of nonfarm payroll growth over the year 2017 was
very close to +184.5K per month" or a "really good pace."
- "That said, we worry over two statistical survey features that may restrain
the gain in December's nonfarm payrolls," he said:
- "1. The seasonal adjustment factor may "GAP HIGHER" for the current month of
December - see Chart, and"
- "2. The "late Reference Saturday" may yield a very "low collection-response
rate" by establishments that, ceteris paribus, tends to bias lower the payroll
gain in its initial estimate by the BLS (only to be subsequently revised)."
- "Because of these two potentially formidable statistical headwinds, our
nonfarm payroll estimates are: +191.3K mom for total nonfarm payrolls vs
consensus +190K mom and  +185.3K mom for private payrolls - versus consensus
estimate +193K (previously +180K mom)," Herrmann said.

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