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Muted Start, Q3 GDP Headlines Docket

US TSYS

TYZ3 deals at 108-11+, -0-01, in line with Friday’s late NY levels in a muted start to Monday's dealing.

  • Cash tsys finished 4-6bps cheaper across the major benchmarks on Friday, light bear steepening was apparent.
  • Tsys ticked lower in narrow ranges on a muted post-Thanksgiving session on Friday. Support was seen in the NY session as WTI was pressured, the move was driven by the Hamas/Israel prisoner swap progressing and pre-weekend positioning.
  • The latest S&P Global PMI report was mixed, a stronger services print offset softer mfg. Headcount fell for the first time since June 2020.
  • FOMC dated OIS priced a terminal rate of 5.35% in January with ~70bps of cuts by Nov 24.
  • Headlining the docket this week is the second read of Q3 GDP on Wednesday. A rise of 5.0% Q/Q (annualised) is expected. Fedspeak from Chair Powell is due on Friday. We also have the latest 2-,5- and 7-Year Supply.
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