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MXN Accelerates Weakness, Dropping in Sympathy With Extended Equity Weakness

MEXICO
  • USDMXN continues to rally sharply, putting MXN among the poorest performers in the region. This extends the rally off the break of the 200-DMA earlier this week - with resistance of 18.2367, the 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 28 downleg also giving way.
  • Acute weakness in local equities driving the decline, with the government’s step to change airport concession agreements raising concerns that the government will intervene more readily in business more broadly. The lack of clarity and messaging from the government on the change in regulation has only added to the negative sentiment.
  • The TIIE Swaps curve has shifted higher in response, rising by 2-9bps, in a bear steepening move. 18.4011 resistance has contained prices so far, with markets also watching the pair re-enter technically overbought territory - the 14d RSI is now at its highest since March 2022.
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