© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Barr Sees Stronger Rules For Banks Over $100B

MNI BRIEF: Barr Says Fed Monitoring Rate Risk At Banks

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Bullard Says Financial Stress Has Risen

SARB Watch

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: GR Synd Expected, PT Buyback Wed

SARB Data Watch

MNI BRIEF: FDIC To Conduct Review Of Deposit Insurance

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Barr: Will Use All Tools To Keep Banks Safe

(RPT)MNI INTERVIEW:Ex-FDIC Chair Downplays Bank Contagion Risk

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access
Trending Top 5
Market News Topics

NAB: Relative Growth Dynamics Supportive

AUDNZD
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange NewsHomepage

NAB note that “growth relativities are important for currencies and when it comes to the AUD/NZD, we think the cross is likely to be well supported over 2023 amid an Australian growth outlook that is likely to show resilience vs. a New Zealand economy that is arguably heading towards (or already in) a recession.”

  • “Relative inflation is another important factor. Cost pressures in New Zealand have forced the RBNZ to aggressively lift the OCR, but inflation has continued to surprise on the upside. The RBA has been less aggressive suggesting a bias for a relatively lower terminal rate.”
  • “This week on Wednesday Australia and New Zealand will get Q4 CPI figures. The breakdowns of the headline readings are going to be important for RBNZ and RBA rate hike expectations. In both instances the market is looking for a much better CPI print vs. respective central bank projections. The cross is likely to face some volatility from relative rates expectations, however, we see relative growth outcomes favouring the cross.”
  • “Our updated projections see the AUD/NZD cross trading around NZ$1.09/1.10 in H123 and as per our advice during Q422, we don’t expect periods sub-NZ$1.08 to prove long lasting.”
196 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

NAB note that “growth relativities are important for currencies and when it comes to the AUD/NZD, we think the cross is likely to be well supported over 2023 amid an Australian growth outlook that is likely to show resilience vs. a New Zealand economy that is arguably heading towards (or already in) a recession.”

  • “Relative inflation is another important factor. Cost pressures in New Zealand have forced the RBNZ to aggressively lift the OCR, but inflation has continued to surprise on the upside. The RBA has been less aggressive suggesting a bias for a relatively lower terminal rate.”
  • “This week on Wednesday Australia and New Zealand will get Q4 CPI figures. The breakdowns of the headline readings are going to be important for RBNZ and RBA rate hike expectations. In both instances the market is looking for a much better CPI print vs. respective central bank projections. The cross is likely to face some volatility from relative rates expectations, however, we see relative growth outcomes favouring the cross.”
  • “Our updated projections see the AUD/NZD cross trading around NZ$1.09/1.10 in H123 and as per our advice during Q422, we don’t expect periods sub-NZ$1.08 to prove long lasting.”