Nat Bank Of Canada: Solid Results, No Credit Downgrade Seen

National Bank of Canada (NA CN) 1Q24 results beat on revenues and net profit and credit metrics look relatively strong. There’s nothing explicit to generate an earnings upgrade here; NBC’s EUR curve has tightened over the last week but there’s nothing to drive a further upgrade, we feel.

• Key credit metrics: loan losses are 21bp (1bp higher than 4Q23) and non-performers are 3bp weaker (at 48bp, ex-POCI). CET1 is 40bp lower at 13.1% (c.30bp below consensus) on a range of methodology changes. So, again, no major failures from credit quality but indicative of caution in the macro inputs.
• Revenues were +4.8% y/y and 4% better than consensus (though some of this is in trading revenues), costs were up 4% (in line) and credit losses were relatively flat q/q. Overall, this drove net income 12% above consensus.
• Outlook: mgmt sees credit losses of 15-25bp for FY24 which is compatible with current consensus. The slides do indicate the bank has no US office exposure but, otherwise, there is little outlook news here.

Conf call is 1800 London time at https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/t568mtf6