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NATGAS: TTF Eases Back Amid Steady Fundamentals but Middle East Risk

NATGAS
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European gas markets ease back from gains yesterday as the markets try to gauge the impact of Middle East escalations and signs of an Israeli ground invasion into Lebanon on supply security for the region.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to hold slightly below normal this week before warming above normal into the second week of the October. Forecasts suggest the upcoming European winter will be colder than last year but still warmer than long term averages.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up to 293.6mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 50.2mcm/d today, falling to 41.6mcm/d later this week and to 28.6mcm/d on Oct. 7.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara continue to slowly recover and estimated at 52.3mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.2mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was still low at 207mcm/d on Sept. 29, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 231mcm/d over the previous week.
  • European gas storage is up to 94.28% of capacity on Sep 29, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 90.0%.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 239k on Sep 30.
    • TTF NOV 24 down 1.8% at 38.34€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 1.6% at 39€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1.5% at 37.07€/MWh
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European gas markets ease back from gains yesterday as the markets try to gauge the impact of Middle East escalations and signs of an Israeli ground invasion into Lebanon on supply security for the region.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to hold slightly below normal this week before warming above normal into the second week of the October. Forecasts suggest the upcoming European winter will be colder than last year but still warmer than long term averages.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up to 293.6mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 50.2mcm/d today, falling to 41.6mcm/d later this week and to 28.6mcm/d on Oct. 7.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara continue to slowly recover and estimated at 52.3mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.2mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was still low at 207mcm/d on Sept. 29, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 231mcm/d over the previous week.
  • European gas storage is up to 94.28% of capacity on Sep 29, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 90.0%.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 239k on Sep 30.
    • TTF NOV 24 down 1.8% at 38.34€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 1.6% at 39€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1.5% at 37.07€/MWh