FRANCE
The latest opinion poll from Elabe ahead of the 7 July legislative election run-off shows the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) on course to win between 200 and 230 seats in the 577-member National Assembly, well below the 289 seats required for a majority. The poll, carried out between 3-4 July, shows the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) on course to win 165-190 seats, with the centrist Ensemble bloc of President Emmanuel Macron projected to take between 120 and 140 seats. The centre-right Les Republicains are projected to win between 35 and 50 seats.
- The 'republican front' of NFP candidates standing down in three-way contests if they are in third place in order to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote with Ensemble (and vice versa) has seemingly dented the prospect of an RN majority.
- In the likely event of a hung parliament, focus will turn to the formation of a gov't. While NFP and Ensemble have been willing to work together to stop RN gains in parliament they remain bitter opponents and the prospect of an unworkable parliament, with three sizeble blocs all unwilling to work with one another is very possible.
- In such a scenario it is unclear who Macron could appoint as PM (RN have said they will not govern without an absolute majrotiy). Any gov't would likely need to use Art 49.3 to push through legislation without a vote, but thereby opening itself up to no-confidence votes.
Chart 1. National Assembly Seat Projection based on Opinion Polling
Source: Elabe
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