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Natixis Expect 50bp BanRep Rate Cut In March

COLOMBIA
  • On the back of yesterday’s weak GDP data, Natixis are now forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut at the March BanRep meeting, instead of 25bp. They now expect the policy rate to reach 9.25% by the end of this year, down from 9.50% expected previously.
  • Q4 GDP growth came in at just 0.04% q/q or 0.3% y/y, well below market expectations and the BanRep forecast. Natixis note that the big surprise was the collapse of gross fixed capital formation, which posted a double-digit annual contraction (-13.9% y/y) for the second quarter in a row. They now forecast 2024 GDP growth at 1.0% instead of 1.7%.
  • In addition, Natixis note that IP, including manufacturing, and retail sales, all fell by more than expected in December. In their view, the more telling indicator that the economy is contracting came from the demand side, with retail sales falling 4.7% y/y and imports down 15.3% y/y. With the economy slowing sharply, they believe that this will be the trigger for an acceleration in the pace of rate cuts.
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