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NatWest Eye 0.3% M/M Core PCE For October

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Headline and core CPI inflation of 0.4% and 0.3% M/M in October were two tenths lower than NatWest and consensus expected.
  • Big moves were anticipated for medical care (-0.5%) and used cars (-2.4%) but they ended up falling more than expected.
  • NWM continue to expect a 50bp hike in Dec with 50bp more hikes in 1H23. By itself, the data support the Fed stepping down the size of expected rate hikes as early as the Dec FOMC meeting, but today's data doesn't dramatically change the backdrop much that policy rates will likely get even more restrictive relative to what the September dot plot suggested.
  • They forecast core PCE at 0.3% M/M (previously estimated 0.4%, following 0.45% in Sep) with the year/year rate easing a tenth to 5.0% Y/Y.
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