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NatWest Markets View Ahead of the Sep MPC Meeting

BOE
  • NatWest Markets expect a unanimous vote for no change in policy but "expect a more dovishly-toned set of Minutes which will fuel expectations of further QE around the turn of the year."
  • NatWest Markets notes that "the probability of an uplift as soon as November 2020…has receded a little" but that it continues to look for GBP100bln QE by February 2021 and that "there is nothing to prevent further QE being sanctioned before the completion of the current round, or dissenting dovish votes for more QE".
  • NatWest Markets also looks for another GBP100bln of QE in Q2-2021 bringing the stock of purchases up to GBP945bln. Although it sees no rate cuts in its base case it notes that "negative rates remain a significant risk"
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