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NBH Leaves 1W Depo Rate Unchanged At 4%

HUNGARY
  • NBH pauses in its tightening cycle, leaving its 1W deposit rate steady at 4% in the past two weeks after raising it by 220bps in the last two months of 2021.
  • The HUF strength has been one of the major reasons behind policymakers’ decision to keep the effective rate unchanged as a stronger domestic currency helps anchoring inflation expectations.
  • The forint has been the best performing currency among the EM world since the start of the year; it is up 5% against the USD and 4% against the Euro (see chart below).
  • However, policymakers may start to increase the 1W depo rate again the near term as surging energy prices keep supporting inflation.
  • Next important data to watch will be December CPI inflation on January 14, expected to decelerate to 7.2% YoY (from 7.4% the previous month).

Source: Bloomberg

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