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NBP Likely To Proceed With a 75bps Hike on July 7

POLAND
  • This week, the NBP is meeting on July 7 and is expected to hike its policy rate by 75bps to 6.75%.
  • Even though the hawkish hikes delivered y the NBH and CNB recently would imply that risks are skewed towards bigger hike in Poland, Glapinski’s comments on NBP ‘approaching the end of a drastic tightening cycle’ could limit the magnitude of the hike this week.
  • However, the probability of a 50bps hike is very low given that it will generate some PLN weakness.

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