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NBP Lon Convinced There Is No Need For Immediate Action

POLAND
  • In the past two months, selling pressure on PLN has remained elevated despite the recent aggressive hikes by the NBP.
  • NBP surprised the market in its last two meetings, raising the policy rate by 40bps last month (vs. no change expected) and again hiking by 75bps last week (vs. 25bps exp.).
  • In addition to several factors that could impact Polish risky assets in the near to medium term (ongoing dispute with EU, FX-loan settlements, rise in LT rates…), the inversion of the yield curve recently has increased the probability of a recession coming ahead.
  • With the Fed tapering and recession risks rising in some EM economies, risk Is skewed to the downside for PLN, currently trading at its lowest level since May 2020 against the USD.
  • This morning, NBP Eryk Lon said in an interview that he still does not see the need to take immediate action as urged by some of his colleagues this week despite inflation standing at a 20-year high. Low interest rate keeps supporting the economic activity.
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