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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- With Core CPI rising to 4% in May and Final CPI print coming in at 4.7%, both key measures of inflation are now standing significantly higher than the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band.
- While some policymakers continue to think that the spike in inflation is just temporary and that inflationary pressures should ease in the end of 2021 / beginning of 2022, some more 'hawkish' MPC members (i.e. Gatnar) are favoring a 'symbolic' rate rise in the short term.
- However, unlike CNB and NBH that have sounded more 'hawkish' recently, with market pricing in a 50% chance of rate hike at next week's meetings (NBH on June 22 and CNB on June 23), NBP seems to be ready to keep interest rates steady in the coming months to stimulate the economic recovery.
- As a result, traders have been taking profit on their PLN trade in the past two weeks following strong momentum in April and May.
- July and July CPI prints in addition to the summer NBP projections will be key for the policy outlook.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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