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NATURAL GAS
The low winter demand, steady supplies and expected high end of heating season gas storage levels have driven the front of the TTF curve significantly lower over the last month or so but moves in seasons in Sum24 and beyond have been more muted.
- The March 23, Sum23 and Win23 contracts are down about 18% over the last month but Sum24 is down only 7% and Win24 down just 5%.
- The smaller decline reflects the lower price rise and risk premium that had previously been priced into those contracts. Prices in Sum24 and beyond reflect the reduced supply risk with the hope for a gradual increase in global liquefaction capacity after 2024 combined with the current ramping up of EU regasification capacity.
- Disruption to near term LNG supplies into Europe remains an upside risk for the coming summer and the ability to restock storage before next winter.
- TTF MAR 23 down -5.5% at 49.13€/MWh
- TTF SUM 23 down -4.7% at 50.71€/MWh
- TTF WIN 23 down -3.3% at 58.4€/MWh
- TTF SUM 24 down -2.7% at 54.85€/MWh
- TTF WIN 24 down -2.6% at 56.7€/MWh
Source: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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