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Net USD Specs Continue to Plunge Despite Risk Off Environment

FOREX
  • Net specs on USD continue to fall despite rising geopolitical uncertainty; total USD net specs plunged by 21K contracts to 58.2K in the week ended February 15, their lowest level since August 2021.
  • While the ‘Long USD Trade’ has been losing popularity since the end of November, the global risk-off environment has been strongly supporting the US Dollar against major crosses in the past two weeks.
  • The DXY index has been oscillating around the 96 level in the past week after finding support at its 100DMA earlier this month.
  • ST resistance to watch on the topside stands at 96.72, followed by the psychological 97 level.
  • The outlook of the US Dollar looks binary at the moment:
    • On one hand, further deterioration in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to more USD appreciation and could weigh on risky assets.
    • On the other hand, easing tensions would generate another ST buy-the-dip environment, with USD likely to underperform major DM and EM crosses.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI.

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