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New 1Y Yield Highs

US TSYS SUMMARY

Reflation theme finished strong Friday, at least in Tsys -- selling off to new lows after recent headline from Sen Schumer re: fiscal stimulus bill on track for March 14 passage. Equities lagging as ESH1 pared losses late to 3912.0 vs Tue's high of 3960. New 1Y yield highs: 10YY 1.3601%, 30YY 2.1526%.

  • Midmorning sell-off following better than expected existing home sales, bonds extended session lows into noon, curves making new 5Y highs (5s30s 156.326) as hopes improved vaccine inventory/distribution ahead spring spells for improved summer economic outlook.
  • About an hour later several stimulus related headlines during second half rounding out the week on a positive note: SCHUMER SAYS SENATE ON TRACK TO PASS STIMULUS BEFORE MARCH 14, Bbg, while House Budget Comm just released text of stimulus bill ahead Monday's markup.
  • Heavier futures trade, this time March/June futures rolling did play a part in driving volumes: >755k FVH/FVM by the bell making up just over 40% of total FVH volume on day. March Tsy option expiration contributed to flows as did continued positioning of put positions out and down in strike.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.2bps at 0.1068%, 5-Yr is up 2.6bps at 0.5791%, 10-Yr is up 4.9bps at 1.3448%, and 30-Yr is up 6bps at 2.1416%.
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