New Governor Karahan to Present Inflation Report Tomorrow Morning

A reminder that the Central Bank of Turkey’s Inflation Report will be presented by newly appointed Governor Fatih Karahan tomorrow (scheduled by Bloomberg to begin at 07:30GMT/10:30 local time). Investors will be seeking clues over the path of the central bank moving forward, though it is widely expected that Karahan will continue the shift toward more orthodox policy that was started by his predecessor.

• JP Morgan noted earlier in the week that while sudden leadership changes bring discomfort for investors, they see the new Governor as positive for disinflation and lira as they think the reshaped MPC is likely more hawkish. They added that they believe the CBRT will keep the door open for further rate hikes in its forward guidance in the Inflation Report Press Briefing.
• Goldman Sachs say they see no reason to doubt that incoming Governor Karahan will pursue a similar path to the one chosen by his predecessor, and they therefore see no reason to change their forecasts for rates in 2024 - their base case is that rates are on hold until the end of Q2-24.