New Hampshire Primary Hints At Trump Weakness Amongst Independents

Former President Donald Trump may have comfortably won the New Hampshire primary, and effectively locked down the GOP presidential nomination, but his weakness with independent voters points to vulnerabilities ahead of the general election.

• Axios notes, citing exit polls: “Trump won Republican voters 74% to 25%, while [Nikki] Haley won independents 58% to 39%... 83% of Haley voters — and 42% of voters overall — said they would not consider Trump to be fit for office if he were convicted of a crime."
• Analysis from Fox News found that 35% of New Hampshire's primary voters wouldn't vote for Trump in November.
• MSNBC reports that, “New Hampshire's GOP primary has never seen a wider gap between the preferences of independents and Republican voters than last night's results.”
• The results suggest that, as expected, Trump is dominant within the core Republican party base but may struggle to win GOP-leaning independent votes - critical to winning a general election matchup with President Biden.
• Politico notes that after New Hampshire, Biden is in better shape “than many assumed… In an ordinary primary, a 55 or 60 percent performance by an incumbent would be a sure sign of weakness. But New Hampshire was no ordinary primary this year. Since Biden’s name didn’t actually appear on the ballot, all of his votes are write-ins.”