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NFIB Paints Mixed Picture On Prices, But Overall Disinflation Persists

US DATA

Given that it's CPI day, probably the most attention in today's May NFIB small business survey was on the prices component - and it shows, at best, a mixed picture.

  • "Actual" price changes over the last 3 months came in at the lowest since March 2021 (down 1pp at 32% - this is a "higher" minus "lower" net percent reading).
  • But "Price Plans" for the next 3 months jumped 8pp to 29% - for the joint-highest of 2023 (same as Jan).
  • Overall the forward reading is the most important, and continues to point toward falling median prices in the year ahead - albeit the projected decline has stalled out at above-Fed target levels, for this month at least, . See chart:

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