Free Trial

No Recession In The Data So Far


Today's retail sales and Industrial production data added to the a solid April nonfarm jobs report in pointing to fairly strong economic momentum at the start of the 2nd quarter.

  • Certainly, today's data indicates that talk of imminent recession appears overdone. The industrial production index hit a fresh all-time high in April (see chart vs recession periods), while retail sales deflated by CPI has risen in each month of 2022 so far (albeit remains just below the March 2021 high, before CPI readings began soaring).
  • IP, retail sales, and nonfarm payrolls are key components in the NBER's recession dating process (in addition to real personal income / consumption expenditures).
  • GDP nowcasts are likely to be revised up for Q2, and Q1 could be revised up as well based on incoming revised monthly data.
  • Weakness may be coming later in the year, but for now, the data is likely to keep interest rates underpinned and the Fed on course to hike 100bp at the next two meetings.

IP Index And NBER Recession Periods.Source: Federal Reserve, BBG, MNI

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.