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No Recession Seen In GDP Weighted ISM

US

The "economy weighted" (manufacturing and services weighted by GDP) ISM series continues to decline (to 55.0 in June from 55.9 in May, and 67.5 at the November 2021 all-time peak).

  • But apart from the 2020 pandemic recession, the series is well above levels that have previously signaled recession (the chart below shows recessionary periods in blue bars):


Source: ISM, NBER, BBG, MNI

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