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NOK on Top as Norges Re-Accelerate Tightening

FOREX
  • NOK is comfortably outperforming across G10, tipping EUR/NOK back toward the 100-dma support undercutting at 11.4405. The level was last crossed in November last year and a break below would mark a key medium-term momentum shift in the cross.
  • Moves across the Norwegian currency follow an acceleration in the tightening pace for the Norges Bank, who raised the policy rate by 50bps to 3.75% and flagged further tightening to come across the Summer months. The Bank's new rate path boosted the peak to near 4.25%, and sees the bank holding policy at a tighter level for longer across the forecast horizon.
  • Meanwhile, the SNB raised policy rates by 25bps - disappointing a notable minority that looked for 50bps of tightening today. The Bank warned that further policy tightening cannot be ruled out, although they downgraded their inflation view for 2023 in the process. CHF trades weaker in response, putting USD/CHF higher by ~0.1% on the day.
  • The Bank of England rate decision takes focus going forward. At the beginning of the week, consensus firmly looked for 25bps of tightening, but there remain outside risks of a larger move today in response to the accelerating core inflation release posted earlier this week. GBP/USD holds just below 1.2800 at typing, with options markets pricing an approximate 85pip swing in the pair today.
  • Weekly jobless claims and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index are the data highlights Thursday, with US existing home sales to follow. Fed's Powell is set to appear for a second session, this time in front of the Senate Banking Panel. Fed's Bowman, Barkin and Mester also make appearances.
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