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(Nominal) Retail Spending Sharply Slower in December

US DATA
  • Nominal retail sales came in weaker than already soft expectations in December, especially after downward revisions.
  • Total sales -1.1% (cons -0.9%) after -1.0% (initial -0.6%) and the control group -0.7% (cons -0.3) after -0.2% although that was at least unrevised – all M/M figures.
  • It left the 3mm run rate at -4.3% annualized for total sales or -2% for both control group and ex auto & gas measures, the latter two having slowed sharply from the +5-6% in Q3.
  • The continued rotation towards services has seen the broader category of PCE grow more strongly into the fall (see right hand chart) but the latest downward momentum from retail doesn’t bode well for continued strength ahead.

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