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Nomura: 4.25% Terminal Rate, Cuts  To Start In Late 2024

ECB

Citing rising eurozone core inflation, resilient growth, and policymakers signalling that 4% rates could be reasonable, Nomura has pushed up its terminal ECB deposit rate expectation to 4.25% vs 3.50% prior.

  • That includes 50bp hikes in Mar, May, and Jun, and 25bp in July.
  • That's slightly higher than current market pricing - Nomura sees "risks of market pricing edging higher on the March core HICP inflation print. Our current inflation profile shows core inflation breaching 6% y-o-y at that point, a move that could thus unnerve markets and the ECB."
  • Further out, Nomura expects six 25bp cuts between Oct 2024 to Jun 2025, with rates falling to 2.75%.
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