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Nomura: Expect Unrounded AHE Closer To 0.4 Than 0.2%

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Nomura look for a stronger than consensus payrolls print mostly across the board.
  • They see nonfarm payrolls rising 235k in May (cons 190k), underscoring continued strength in the labor market, but will watch temporary help services, a leading indicator of broader payrolls trends.
  • AHE are likely to rise by 0.3% M/M (cons 0.3%), decelerating but remaining above the level consistent with the Fed being able to meet their 2% price inflation target.
  • However, they see risks to the upside, and on an unrounded basis expect a value closer to 0.4% than to 0.2%. While key signals of labor market tightness such as the quits rate and the V-U ratio point to continued, albeit easing, wage inflation pressures, other important determinants of wage growth (e.g., near-term inflation expectations) are likely to provide some support.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to hold level at 3.4% (cons 3.5%).
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