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Nomura Still Gunning For 75bp Hikes

FED

One standout in the FOMC post-mortems is Nomura, which is sticking to its pre-meeting view that the Fed will hike by 75bp in both June and July despite Powell's indication to the contrary.

  • While Nomura acknowledges that Powell "pushed back somewhat", raising risks to their 75bp hike calls, they believe his comments "did not clearly rule [them] out", as he was "careful to emphasize that it was not off the table", and that "additional 50bp rate hikes were dependent on the economic outlook evolving as expected".
  • They also point out Powell's noting that "forward guidance in the current environment is currently not as useful as it historically has been".
  • Importantly, Nomura sees stabilization and a potential rebound in M/M core inflation, which will pressure the Fed to "actively consider" 75bp hikes.
  • Nomura still sees 75bp hikes in June and July, 25bp in Sep, Nov, Dec, Feb, Mar, May to 3.75-4.00%. QT to end after Q4 2023; MBS sales starting January 2023.
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