Nordic Front Quarter Up to Track Gains in European Markets

The Nordic front quarter base load contract is edging up amid gains in the surrounding European power markets owing to rises in European gas and emissions. Prices could be supported on delivery as Norwegian hydro generation in 3Q compared to 2Q is typically lower due to stocks being saved for the upcoming winter season, with nuclear maintenance over the period expected.

• Nordic Base Pwr Q3 24 up 0.5% at 37.25 EUR/MWh.
  
• TTF Gas JUN 24 up 1.8% at 34.15 EUR/MWh.
• Norwegian water reservoir output over the 3Q23 average ~9.35GW down from 11.82GW generated in 2Q23, data from Entso-E show. This trend was also apparent over 2020-22.
• Sweden’s 1.13GW Ringhals block 4 in the SE3 bidding zone will shut down on 15 August-13 September.
• The 990MW Forsmark unit 1 will go off line just before, with maintenance scheduled over 30 June-27 July.
• The 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 will go off line over 1 September-18 October.
• Finland’s 507MW Loviisa unit 1 will also be disconnected over 31 August-30 September. The 507MW Loviisa unit 2 will be off line over 4-25 August.
• Temperatures across the Nordics are anticipated to average between ~12-16C over the third quarter – with temperatures peaking in July.
• Closer in, the Nordic region has a daily average of 1 heating degree days for the 1-5 day forecast, according to WSI, 4 below the 10-year norm.
• In Helsinki, the mean temperature is forecast to rise as high as 19C on May 29, 6C above the 30-year norm – which could support power prices.
• Capacity on 723MW NorNed power link will be curtailed by 103MW over 31 May-1 July, latest Remit data show. Limiting export capacity from Norway to the Netherland’s – which could add some support to power prices in the latter country.