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Norges Bank in Pole Position to Be First DM CB to Raise Rates

FOREX
  • Central bank activity has drawn plenty of focus so far today, with decisions from the Indonesian, Taiwanese, Norwegian and Swiss central banks. All banks opted to keep rates unchanged, with the Norges Bank decision the most notable as they lent on their September decision as the first to see a post-pandemic rate hike. This puts the Norwegian central bank in pole position to be the first developed market to hike interest rates as the global economy recovers.
  • The greenback remains firm following yesterday's Fed decision, with the USD Index adding to gains and printing new multi-month highs. The USD Index has now topped the 200-dma at 91.537, and is now within 2% of the 2021 highs printed in late March.
  • Meanwhile, the CHF is among the worst performers in G10. While the SNB kept policy unchanged, medium- and long-term inflation forecasts were remarkably subdued, with CPI not seen topping 1.0% at all across the forecast horizon.
  • Key data due today include weekly jobless claims and the latest Philly Fed data for June. The Turkish rate decision also crosses, with the CBRT keeping rates unchanged at 19.00%. Speeches from ECB's Lane, Elderson and Visco are all due.
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