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Free AccessNorway CPI-ATE Lower Than Forecast, Strengthens Case For Hold In Rates On Thursday
Norway November CPI came in 0.1ppt lower than consensus on both headline and core (in Y/Y terms), and 0.3ppt below the core projections made in the Norges Bank's September MPR. This should strengthen the case for a hold in rates on Thursday - which is currently the consensus forecast.
- NOK shows a fairly muted reaction as a result, with no need for further selling given the hold in rates in largely priced in at this stage.
- CPI-ATE printed at +5.8% Y/Y and -0.2% M/M (vs +5.9% Y/Y, -0.1% cons and +6.0% Y/Y, +0.6% M/M prior). Norges Bank forecasted 6.1% Y/Y in the September MPR.
- Headline CPI rose on the month on the back of energy base effects, coming in at +4.8% Y/Y and +0.5% M/M (vs +4.9% Y/Y, +0.7% M/M cons, +4.0% Y/Y, +1.0% M/M prior). Norges Bank forecasted 5.4% Y/Y in the September MPR.
- Food prices were the subject of analyst disagreement once again in November, and they printed at +9.1% Y/Y, +0.1% M/M (vs +8.5% Y/Y, +0.9% M/M prior) - likely softer than the projections of those forecasting an above-consensus inflation print.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.