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Norway CPI-ATE Lower Than Forecast, Strengthens Case For Hold In Rates On Thursday


Norway November CPI came in 0.1ppt lower than consensus on both headline and core (in Y/Y terms), and 0.3ppt below the core projections made in the Norges Bank's September MPR. This should strengthen the case for a hold in rates on Thursday - which is currently the consensus forecast.

  • NOK shows a fairly muted reaction as a result, with no need for further selling given the hold in rates in largely priced in at this stage.
  • CPI-ATE printed at +5.8% Y/Y and -0.2% M/M (vs +5.9% Y/Y, -0.1% cons and +6.0% Y/Y, +0.6% M/M prior). Norges Bank forecasted 6.1% Y/Y in the September MPR.
  • Headline CPI rose on the month on the back of energy base effects, coming in at +4.8% Y/Y and +0.5% M/M (vs +4.9% Y/Y, +0.7% M/M cons, +4.0% Y/Y, +1.0% M/M prior). Norges Bank forecasted 5.4% Y/Y in the September MPR.
  • Food prices were the subject of analyst disagreement once again in November, and they printed at +9.1% Y/Y, +0.1% M/M (vs +8.5% Y/Y, +0.9% M/M prior) - likely softer than the projections of those forecasting an above-consensus inflation print.

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