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Nov CPI Eases to +7.4%, Core CPI Holds Steady

MNI (London)

SOUTH AFRICA NOV CPI +0.3% M/M (FCST +0.3%); OCT +0.4% M/M

SOUTH AFRICA NOV CPI +7.4% Y/Y (FCST +7.5%); OCT +7.6% Y/Y


  • South African CPI moderated by 0.2pp to +7.4% y/y in November, one-tenth lower than expectations. Prices slowed marginally to +0.3% m/m (vs +0.4% in Oct).
  • Food inflation accelerated for the seventh consecutive month, up 0.5pp at +12.5% y/y on the back of continued bread/cereal price growth. Hotel and restaurant prices also accelerated, to +7.9% y/y.
  • Whilst transport inflation eased for the fourth month, slowing by 1.8pp to +15.3% y/y on the back of falling fuel costs.
  • The next SARB interest rate decision is due at the end of January. As such, today's CPI print will likely be largely overshadowed by December data, yet November's core CPI holding steady implies the tightening cycle is not yet over.
  • The November 75bp hike was likely the largest of this magnitude, leaving the Bank likely to downshift to 25-50bp in January.

Source: MNI / Bloomberg

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