Nov Inflation Preview: Further Disinflationary Progress

France (20% of EZ HICP) – 0745UK Thu 30 November

• Consensus: HICP: 4.1% Y/Y (4.5% prior) / 0.0% M/M (0.2% prior)
• CPI: 3.7% Y/Y (4.0% prior) / 0.1% M/M (0.1% prior)

• French inflation is expected to continue moderating in November, with most estimates for headline HICP that we've seen in the low 4.0% Y/Y area (vs 4.5% prior).
• French October inflation came broadly in line with expectations for both CPI and HICP, with the annual CPI print driven lower by a slowdown in energy, food and non-energy industrial goods prices. Services prices were relatively sticky, however.
• MNI’s inflation breadth metrics indicate that 72% of components had Y/Y inflation rates above 2% in October, down from 77% in September.
• In November, energy price inflation is seen pulling the headline print down significantly with Goldman Sachs forecasting a fall in the category to 2.9% Y/Y (vs 4.9% prior).
• The November flash PMI indicated that rising output prices were driven by service sector firms, with higher input costs stemming from wage pressures.

Source: INSEE, MNI Calculations