Nuclear Delays to Boost Japan’s LNG Demand This Winter

The delayed restart of two Japanese nuclear generation facilities is expected to boost Japan’s LNG imports by 1% year on year in the October-March period according to BNEF.

• The restart of Tokyo Electric Power’s 1.4GW Kashiwazaki-Kariwa reactor has likely been delayed to January 2024, from October this year previously scheduled.
• Chugoku Electric was also getting ready to restart its 0.8GW Shimane No 2 reactor in 2Q24, but a newly released schedule confirms this will not happen before August next year.
• Chugoku Electric could be undercontracted for LNG in 2024, given that volumes purchased under a recent tender weren’t made public. The utility currently relies on a single 0.4mn ton agreement with TotalEnergies for its LNG supply.
• In total, these delays could boost LNG demand for electricity by 0.7mn tons across October 2023 to August 2024, as gas-fired power plants will likely ramp up to compensate for the lower nuclear generation.
• Meanwhile, Tohoku Electric’s Onagawa No 2 reactor is still due to restart on schedule by February.