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NW European Gasoline Falling in May Amid Limited Export Opportunities

GASOLINE

NW European E5 gasoline barges have fallen so far in May due to a relative scarcity of export opportunities, according to Energy Aspects.

  • The NW Europe gasoline crack versus Dated Brent is forecast at $25.60/bbl for Q2, $20.80/bbl for Q3 and $13.40/bbl for Q4.
  • Transatlantic arbitrage economics remain broadly unworkable despite a seasonal increase in shipments to the US East Coast PADD 1 with higher refinery supply.
  • European prices could be forced to discount to clear excess length if a relaxation of Russia’s fuel export restrictions impacts Europe’s exports to Africa.
  • A startup of the Dangote refinery’s reformer is a key risk to Atlantic octane markets although secondary unit startups are not expected until Q4.
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NW European E5 gasoline barges have fallen so far in May due to a relative scarcity of export opportunities, according to Energy Aspects.

  • The NW Europe gasoline crack versus Dated Brent is forecast at $25.60/bbl for Q2, $20.80/bbl for Q3 and $13.40/bbl for Q4.
  • Transatlantic arbitrage economics remain broadly unworkable despite a seasonal increase in shipments to the US East Coast PADD 1 with higher refinery supply.
  • European prices could be forced to discount to clear excess length if a relaxation of Russia’s fuel export restrictions impacts Europe’s exports to Africa.
  • A startup of the Dangote refinery’s reformer is a key risk to Atlantic octane markets although secondary unit startups are not expected until Q4.